Back in the BCS period, when a complex yet well-characterized recipe of PC rankings and human surveys decided the national title, attempting to make sense of the two groups that would arrive at the title game was an entirely logical procedure.
Presently in the College Football Playoff time, when a 13-man advisory group decides the four groups for the national elimination rounds through their aggregate feeling, making sense of what they will do is more workmanship than science.
Attempting to peruse the CFP choice council’s tea leaves is as yet the activity of ESPN’s Brad Edwards, one of the hosts on its “College GameDay” show each Saturday on ESPN Radio. We got some information about an assortment of CFP subjects Wednesday, from whether LSU needs to stress over remaining at No. 1 in the CFP rankings on the off chance that it wins out, to the unavoidable issue as yet stalking Tigers fans in the wake of Saturday’s 46-41 succeed at Alabama: Could LSU need to play the Crimson Tide again like in 2011?
Do you think if LSU goes 13-0 with a success in the SEC Championship Game it will remain No. 1 if Ohio State likewise goes 13-0?
“I do, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lock. Basically, LSU has one more chance for a big-time win in the SEC Championship Game. They have a bunch of them (four over CFP top 20 teams).”
“Now, if Ohio State destroys Rutgers this weekend they become the first team since Nebraska in 1971 to win their first 10 games by 24 points or more. They’re the most dominant team in the FPI (ESPN’s Football Power Index) era going back 16 years. It’s possible Ohio State’s resume gets into the same ballpark as LSU if LSU were to play a closer game. But I’d say it’s about an 80 percent chance LSU is No. 1 if it’s undefeated.”
There is a ton of discussion about ‘game control’ as a measurement? How would people evaluate it?
“It’s the probability of your record given your schedule. What it looks at is the chance an average top 25 team has at having that record against your schedule. Right now, LSU is No. 1 and Ohio State is No. 2, but it’s the largest gap I’ve ever seen. It’s like LSU is in a different stratosphere. An average top 25 team, say No. 12 or 13, has a 1% chance to go 9-0 against LSU’s schedule. It would have a 16% chance of being 9-0 against Ohio State’s schedule. Baylor is third at 17% and Minnesota fourth at 23%.”
“LSU’s resume is such that even if they don’t add another quality win at the end they still have the best resume in the nation.”
Alabama tumbled from No. 3 to No. 5 subsequent to losing to LSU and many individuals state its expectations are thin of making the CFP. People differ if Bama somehow managed to win out and finish 11-1. Why?
State Alabama gets in at No. 4. Might people be able to see the board of trustees tweaking the elimination rounds so they don’t play LSU immediately, as in 2011 after LSU beat Bama in the normal season?
“If LSU is No. 1 going into the SEC Championship Game and wins, there’s no flexibility to change that. They’d have to think ahead to drop LSU before that weekend to avoid an Alabama rematch.”
“I imagine everyone on the committee is aware of what happened in 2011. We all saw (Saturday’s) game and we can’t say the same thing would definitely happen. A lot of plays went LSU’s way for the win. But I wouldn’t be shocked if two or three people on the committee said, ‘Let’s not put them through that again.’ I don’t think they’d make a decision based on that, but we’re all human.”
Alexix is an American writer. She has worked in collage and installation and also edge of nonreality, of literal craziness .